From the very outset of the pandemic the objective of the Government’s policy has been to ‘protect the NHS’ from being overwhelmed with more hospital admissions than could be accommodated. The political imperative was to avoid the scenes of chaos at hospitals that we witnessed in Lombardy last February.
For this reason the restrictions were placed on human contact in order to reduce the rate of infection and so to slow the pace of hospital admissions. Stating the obvious, these restrictions have come at an enormous economic and social cost, so it is vital that they are lifted as soon as possible.
When to lift them has to be a political decision. Yet, over recent days a number of the Government’s scientific advisors have been speaking in public about the need to maintain restrictions to the end of the year and even beyond.
They need to be reminded that the main effort of the entire policy is not to eradicate the disease, but it is to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
The key issue, is to identify the point in the progress in the vaccination programme where a sufficient proportion of the most vulnerable groups (which, if infected, are more likely to be hospitalised) have been vaccinated so as to reduce the risk to the NHS to an acceptable level. The job of the scientists to model the data in an attempt to match vaccination levels with the potential for hospital admissions.
It is for politicians to consider the result of these deliberations, and to balance the risk of lifting the restrictions against the social and economic costs of keeping them in place.
Scientists have a legitimate point of view, but it is exactly that: only a point of view.
Sir Desmond Swayne TD
