Constituents have emailed me over the last year or so, in pursuit of ‘uniting the right’ through a merger or pact between Reform and the Conservative Party, with the objective of avoiding perpetuating government by the Labour Party. Of course, the Runcorn by-election and the Local Elections on Thursday have created a greater urgency and accelerated this email correspondence over the last 48 hours.
The difficulty is that no such arrangement is on offer. On current performance, Reform is convinced that it can beat Labour without any pact with the Tories.
Equally, for the Tories, nothing ever turns out to be as bad as first reported. It will take time to see if the Conservative Party can recover its reputation for competence and with that, its electoral support. Tories will want to watch as Reform has to survive the much greater level of media scrutiny that will now accompany its electoral success. The life of this Parliament will be a marathon and not a sprint: it is far too soon to make predictions as to how things will progress and what will be he impact of, as yet unknown events.
Nevertheless, when the next general election is much closer, if the polling and the way that political landscape has developed suggests that minority support for a further term of Labour government is likely to prevail, then both Reform and the Conservatives may review the question of an electoral pact as the lesser of two evils.
A number of difficulties will arise for any such endeavour.
There can be no doubt that Nigel Farage has been one of the most influential politicians of my lifetime. He was once an enthusiastic Conservative, a devotee of Sir Keith Joseph and Margaret Thatcher. Yet he became convinced that the Conservatives would never be persuaded to leave the EU and for that reason would need to be destroyed and replaced. Inevitably, this history makes for a relatively difficult reconciliation.
Next, as Reform has advanced at the expense of Conservative support, it has increasingly turned its attention to the battle to win support from former Labour voters. As it has done so, its rhetoric and policy is becoming more remote from the free market economics that are core beliefs of ‘Thatcherite’ Conservatives, and which were once Farage’s original inspiration.
Third, Reform is determined to implement proportional representation which is anathema to Tories, who believe that it will perpetuate continental style coalition government.
Finally, Farage is someone that many Conservatives detest. He has been an apologist for both Putin and also for some of the most egregious behaviour of Donald Trump.
Detestation, however, is still negotiable and ultimately, expediency will prevail.
A view will be taken on the basis of an electoral calculation of the consequences of not negotiating a pact. Until that time, both Conservatives and Reform, will be each hoping that their fortunes and the turn of events will enable them to avoid having to consider it.
It is just far too soon to be led by an over-excited press, to be speculating about it.