The tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum prompted a series of emails from the unreconciled, asking me to recant and admit that it was all a terrible mistake.
They quote statistics purporting to establish that our economy would be six to eight percent larger had we remained in the EU. This is complete nonsense. We have enjoyed the fastest rates of growth among the developed nations, not a high bar, but certainly better than the EU. Adding another eight percent would put us in the league with China.
Those that lament our lack-lustre performance, which equally besets the EU, neglect the fact that all our economies have been subjected to enormous shocks, first from Covid, then from the Russian war on Ukraine.
In any event, my correspondents tell me that foreign investment has collapsed. On the contrary, UK remains one of its top destinations.
The City of London and financial services have forged ahead with reforms, and to return to EU regulatory control as ‘rule-takers’ would be fiercely resisted. Even the Government’s determination to ‘reset’ our EU relationship has clocked this one, so their agenda excludes the City and financial services altogether.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s assumption that our export of goods and services would reduce by fifteen percent, is simply not borne out by the data. Our trade is holding up well.
Where undoubtedly non-tariff barriers imposed by the EU, in the form of bureaucratic procedures, has had a real impact, is that many small producers have stopped exporting to Europe altogether. The Food and Drink Federation reports a significant percentage reduction in exports. Nevertheless, their analysis is flawed: Given that the amounts were modest in the first place, a percentage reduction does not amount to much in absolute terms.
It ignores the significantly higher self-imposed UK energy costs which make our products uncompetitive.
Realignment with EU rules would reduce friction in EU trade but would impose EU bureaucratic costs once again across all our economic sectors.
The Life Sciences sector is a case in point. It has raced ahead since Brexit through the ability to use gene editing, which is banned in the EU. We must resist the urge to abandon our advantage and return to the EU slow lane, giving up flexibility for uniformity.
The CBI, that champion of the remainers, now acknowledges that Business rejects calls to rejoin the EU.
Popular opinion in favour of re-joining, quickly disappears when informed of the costs and obligations, which would in include much higher fees than previously, and giving up Sterling for the Euro.
None of the doom scenarios that we were warned that Brexit would usher in have come to pass.
Neither has our influence nor standing in the World been diminished.
I spotted a notice in Cologne Airport advertising a UK duty-free limit for UK travellers of 42 litres of German beer, that’s 74 pints. That’s got be a Brexit benefit, but how carrying them?