Constituents keep emailing me to demand that we leave the EU on the 29 March without a deal
A no deal Brexit was rejected by the Commons on Wednesday
A extension beyond 29 March was carried on Thursday
The PM’s agreement is not ‘the deal’: that deal is still to be negotiated subsequently during the transition period.
The political declaration which accompanies the agreement could be translated into something enthusiastic Brexiteers might quite like, say Canada++, or it might turn out something very disagreeable like ‘Chequers’ or worse.
We don’t know: so, it’s a risk
I have never been risk averse, but what makes me so nervous is that the nature of the agreement, with its up-front financial settlement, and it’s default ‘backstop’, puts UK in the weakest of negotiating positions, maximising the risks. That is why my initial assessment that it was a trap ‘went viral’
What I have had to do is assess the risks inherent in the PM’s deal against the risks of our not leaving the EU at all.
There is no prospect of a no deal BREXIT in the current Parliament, the votes have already determined that.
My current assessment is that the risk of no BREXIT is greater than the risk of being trapped in a customs union with the EU consequent upon the PM’s agreement.
Other ERG members and the DUP have, thus far, reached a different conclusion
I will, of course, continue to listen and reflect.