Reform is ahead in the opinion polls for now, but there is a cloud on its horizon that is growing fast: Nigel Farage has tied Reform so closely to President Trump, and acts as his apologist and mouthpiece.
Over the coming months this may turn out to be an enormous liability.
I should caveat what I will say next about Trump, by stating first, that I agree with Vice President Vance’s analysis, that free speech and democracy have been endangered in Europe -and here in Britain- by our own political masters. Equally, that we Europeans have coasted under the US umbrella for years, enjoying a ‘peace dividend’ instead of meeting our proper financial share of the defence commitments. Little wonder that we are now being side-lined by the new US administration.
Nevertheless, Trump is making a monumental strategic mistake, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, by rewarding Putin, even before negotiations begin, offering up the key concessions of Ukrainian territory and a veto on its being admitted to NATO.
Notwithstanding the stalemate on the battlefield, Putin had already lost the war. He anticipated eliminating Ukraine’s independence within days. He has wrought terrible destruction and terror there, but he has also suffered enormous Russian casualties and economic damage at home. He has reduced Russia to little more than a nuclear-armed petrol station.
And now they have a problem with the petrol: According to analysis from Reuters, Russian oil companies are preparing to start forced production cuts as they are unable to sell millions of barrels of oil. Volumes from Russia’s western ports in January were down 17% from a year ago, and the cost of transporting a cargo from Russia’s Pacific ports to China increased fivefold last month. Goldman Sachs estimates that Russia has stored 17 million barrels aboard ships since January 10th. That figure could rise to 50 million barrels in the first half of this year. There is nowhere else where they can store it: there are virtually no large storage facilities in Russia, and the ones that do exist were damaged by Ukraine last month. Ukraine’s drone attacks have also knocked out around 10% of Russian refining capacity.
Russia is reliant on the largesse of China, North Korea, Iran and Belarus – the world’s pariahs. This is exactly the moment to double down on sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and materiel support for Ukraine. Yet this is the moment that Trump has chosen to bring Putin in from the cold and back into the centre of world affairs. The Kremlin is cock-a-hoop.
As the ramifications sink in and events unfold, especially in Britain where we have been so united in our commitment to Ukraine, Reform’s nuptials with all things Trump may well begin to pall.
And Trump may just keep giving… with tariffs, climate vandalism, Gaza, and heaven knows whatever next.
Farage has tied his party’s fate to something over which he has no control.