I’ve spent the weekend reflecting on the election result and the hundreds of conversations I have had over the last six weeks on doorsteps in the New Forest.
I maintain that fundamentally the economic background to the election was a strong one with 4 million more people in full time jobs that when the Conservative Party entered government; Inflation back down to the target rate of 2%; The fastest economic growth among the G7 wealthy nations; The UK as the World’s 4th largest exporter and 8th largest manufacturer.
But, voters were not yet experiencing any ‘feel good’ factor because interest rates and prices remain high, as do taxes. Those cost-of-living pressures, which are the bane of all incumbent governments, are a continuing consequence of the two great shocks to the world economy arising first from Covid, and second from the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, I never got the impression that current economic performance was a significant factor in determining the election result.
So many of my conversations began with the response “I’ve always voted Conservative but….”
and those ‘buts’ were overwhelmingly due to a perception that the Conservatives had forfeited trust in their economic and general political competence as a result of the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.
Second in order of magnitude was the charge that Conservatives had failed to get control of immigration. And as a close third came the belief that the Conservatives are a party at war with themselves. Inevitably, ‘Partygate’ and the defenestration of two prime ministers fed into this narrative of internal warfare.
Overwhelmingly, these three account for the anger and frustration I encountered. Of course, it wasn’t helped by the inability of the Conservative Party to get its message across when the headlines were dominated by Rishi’s early return from D-Day celebrations, and the gambling habit of some Conservative candidates.
What was equally clear in all my conversations was that, although voters were determined to punish the Conservatives, they expressed little enthusiasm for Labour as the alternative. This is borne out by fact that Labour, though it won decisively, did so with fewer votes that Jeremy Corbyn managed when he lost equally decisively in 2019.
I maintain that fundamentally the economic background to the election was a strong one with 4 million more people in full time jobs that when the Conservative Party entered government; Inflation back down to the target rate of 2%; The fastest economic growth among the G7 wealthy nations; The UK as the World’s 4th largest exporter and 8th largest manufacturer.
But, voters were not yet experiencing any ‘feel good’ factor because interest rates and prices remain high, as do taxes. Those cost-of-living pressures, which are the bane of all incumbent governments, are a continuing consequence of the two great shocks to the world economy arising first from Covid, and second from the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, I never got the impression that current economic performance was a significant factor in determining the election result.
So many of my conversations began with the response “I’ve always voted Conservative but….”
and those ‘buts’ were overwhelmingly due to a perception that the Conservatives had forfeited trust in their economic and general political competence as a result of the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.
Second in order of magnitude was the charge that Conservatives had failed to get control of immigration. And as a close third came the belief that the Conservatives are a party at war with themselves. Inevitably, ‘Partygate’ and the defenestration of two prime ministers fed into this narrative of internal warfare.
Overwhelmingly, these three account for the anger and frustration I encountered. Of course, it wasn’t helped by the inability of the Conservative Party to get its message across when the headlines were dominated by Rishi’s early return from D-Day celebrations, and the gambling habit of some Conservative candidates.
What was equally clear in all my conversations was that, although voters were determined to punish the Conservatives, they expressed little enthusiasm for Labour as the alternative. This is borne out by fact that Labour, though it won decisively, did so with fewer votes that Jeremy Corbyn managed when he lost equally decisively in 2019.
The Conservative Party can take time to lick its wounds in the certainty that little interest will be shown in what it has to say for some time. It needs to establish a reputation for quiet competence as a united opposition. This will be made significantly more difficult than would otherwise be the case by the presence in Parliament of Nigel Farage MP, whose further advancement is reliant on the complete destruction and replacement of the Conservative Party. Survival will depend not so much on how the Labour government performs, than on how Conservatism responds to Farage’s new threat to its existence.
It’s too soon to tell.