Previously In this column Parties (desmondswaynemp.com) I described my original detachment from the PM’s difficulties, because I voted against all the rules of which he had fallen foul. I also explained the confusion between regulation and guidance and how it applied differently between dwellings and places of work: I am confident that the PM is clear in his own mind that he attended work events rather than parties.
The difficulty is that the public perception is of serial rule breaking in Downing Street and even more important, that the PM has not been straight with Parliament about it.
I use the word ‘perception’ because we have yet to have see full facts from either Sue Gray or now, the Metropolitan Police. We are reliant on the hyperbole of journalists who were not present. A ‘prosecco-fuelled party’ might just have been a restrained glass of wine amongst properly distanced work colleagues in an office where they lawfully worked together. Access to the facts is important.
Also important, particularly for politicians reliant on the support of voters, is the public perception of these events, and that perception may already be settled opinion.
The calculation with which Conservative members of Parliament must wrestle is whether the PM is capable of regaining public trust and the authority to govern. He has, after all, managed it previously: My correspondence was equally large and angry following his failure to sack Dominic Cummings after his ‘eye-test’ at Barnard Castle. Yet he re-established a ten-point poll lead. Could he repeat the feat, or has he irretrievably trashed his brand?
They also need to consider the unpredictability of the outcome if they initiate the process of replacing the PM.
There remain dedicated and enthusiastic supporters of Boris in Parliament, in the voluntary Conservative party and amongst the Public: I know this because hundreds of them have emailed me. I recall, my own anger and bitterness when parliamentarians jettisoned Mrs Thatcher, which had consequences which lasted years.
A member of the public put it to me yesterday, that it would be absurd to remove a strong charismatic leader at such a time of national and international danger. It is a proper consideration.
Boris won a general election and delivered Brexit as promised. Does his parliamentary party owe him loyalty for having delivered them from the chaos of the 2017-19 Parliament, or has he become an embarrassment and permanent liability?
A number of my parliamentary colleagues are loathe to give satisfaction to the broadcast journalists who always opposed Brexit and are out for revenge. Equally, they know they are receiving a significant number of template letters whose authors claim to have hitherto always voted conservative – when they know full well that it often isn’t true.
All these things weigh on the mind.
To save anyone asking however, I’ll be keeping my own counsel