Russia is continually being warned by western powers that invading Ukraine is massive strategic error. That will depend however, on what his strategy actually is, and the extent to which we are successful in responding.
It is worth considering our own strategic errors.
The first was Ukraine’s own decision to unilaterally give up its nuclear arsenal in return for a guarantee of its territorial integrity and sovereignty in the Budapest Memorandum signed in December 1994.
I grant that it would have been extremely difficult and expensive for Ukraine to have held on to those weapons, which it had inherited from the former Soviet Union. Nevertheless, had it retained but a fraction of the arsenal it would not be facing its own extinction as an independent nation state, because the assurance of mutual destruction would be a sufficient deterrent to their attacker. There is a lesson for us in this.
Our own strategic mistake was, together with our allies, to fail to define our objectives in Afghanistan and an exit strategy from the very start of our intervention there. The consequent chaos and humiliation of our withdrawal sent a powerful message to both Moscow and Beijing about our weakness, divisions and lack of resolve. That perception in Moscow has had consequences for Ukraine.
How we now respond to Russian action against Ukraine will be closely watched in Beijing and, depending on our resolve, may have consequences for Taiwan.
Sir Desmond Swayne TD
