In this column last week https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/ds-blog/holiday-in-hell/
I cautioned against a ‘precautionary’ approach to viral variants, on the grounds that mutation into new variants is the bread and butter of what viruses do.
Since when I’ve read a very interesting email exchange between Professor Anthony Brooks of The Department of Genetics & Genome Biology at The University of Leicester and other scientists.
Basically the argument runs like this: the Darwinian principle of natural selection favours variants of viruses that mutate to milder causes of disease. After all, the virus will spread much more successfully if its host remains active rather than being laid low in bed.
The problem is that social distancing and lockdown may skew that process of natural selection in favour of variants that are more infectious: -infectious enough to get round aspects social distancing; and potent enough to gain hospital admission because that’s where some of best opportunities for greater spreading are to be had.
This artificial advantage for more infectious and potent variants afforded by our lockdown in response to Covid-19, applies not just to covid-19 itself, but to every virus that is out there.
This may have implications for future flu and other epidemics.
It’s another good reason to get back to normal life -urgently.
Sir Desmond Swayne TD
